Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.049827 0.056573 0.064108 0.073188 0.083883 0.096145 0.111356
2026-01-11 0.040901 0.049570 0.060066 0.073852 0.091692 0.114292 0.145563
2026-01-18 0.034284 0.043935 0.056466 0.074240 0.099320 0.134261 0.188127
2026-01-25 0.028465 0.038283 0.051838 0.072443 0.103945 0.152006 0.234487
2026-02-01 0.023507 0.032967 0.046749 0.069043 0.105736 0.166753 0.283128
2026-02-08 0.020476 0.029914 0.044413 0.069383 0.113740 0.194591 0.367903
2026-02-15 0.018020 0.027334 0.042365 0.069839 0.122405 0.227458 0.481904
2026-02-22 0.016150 0.025384 0.041005 0.071269 0.133640 0.270714 0.649442
2026-03-01 0.014526 0.023587 0.039600 0.072372 0.144940 0.320269 0.876031
2026-03-08 0.012847 0.021443 0.037207 0.071040 0.150876 0.361176 1.121222
2026-03-15 0.011051 0.018835 0.033521 0.066227 0.147391 0.376746 1.303005
2026-03-22 0.010074 0.017608 0.032322 0.066612 0.157260 0.437652 1.752388
2026-03-29 0.009331 0.016745 0.031765 0.068520 0.172665 0.529564 2.530596
2026-04-05 0.008572 0.015746 0.030761 0.069162 0.185178 0.623630 3.570378
2026-04-12 0.007889 0.014808 0.029735 0.069544 0.197510 0.730762 5.075333
2026-04-19 0.007159 0.013678 0.028094 0.067904 0.202779 0.814850 6.776355
2026-04-26 0.006434 0.012468 0.026084 0.064775 0.201717 0.870113 8.518470
2026-05-03 0.005991 0.011819 0.025317 0.065103 0.214222 1.017016 12.590776
2026-05-10 0.005601 0.011242 0.024631 0.065535 0.227795 1.193503 19.167859
2026-05-17 0.005292 0.010812 0.024251 0.066867 0.246442 1.440010 31.643764
2026-05-24 0.005000 0.010384 0.023806 0.067895 0.264798 1.725958 53.591787
2026-05-31 0.004648 0.009771 0.022777 0.066668 0.271764 1.934680 81.584618
2026-06-07 0.004211 0.008912 0.020960 0.062215 0.259820 1.943205 98.438058